The Florida Panthers are one win away from reaching their third straight Stanley Cup Remaining, thanks largely to their third line, the place gamers know their roles and play them nicely. The third line of newly acquired Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen has been the difference-makers for the Panthers within the 2025 Playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Lightning had Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow step up as a trio throughout their 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Playoff wins. Nonetheless, after profitable a number of Stanley Cups, the Lightning couldn’t afford to pay a premium for his or her bottom-six forwards, and so they all landed elsewhere. Tampa Bay has constructed its crew skinny on ahead depth for the previous a number of seasons, and so they haven’t gained a playoff sequence since 2022.
Nonetheless, with their younger prospects and the wage cap rising, the Lightning would possibly have the ability to fill some holes heading into the 2025-26 season, and we’d see the deepest Lightning crew up entrance within the final 4 years. Nonetheless, there stays an unanswered query about whether or not Nick Paul can carry the Lightning’s third line.
Paul Performs Higher With Prime-Finish Expertise
Acquired by the Lightning on the 2022 NHL Commerce Deadline, Nick Paul signed a seven-year take care of the Lightning that summer season that carried a mean annual worth of $3.15 million till 2029. Paul has scored 20 targets and 40 factors in every of the final two seasons, making him a great third-line heart. Nonetheless, a deeper dive paints a greater image of Paul’s true worth.
Associated: Tampa Bay Lightning 2024-25 Participant Projections: Nick Paul
To begin, Paul’s 15 targets at five-on-five final season are respectable and ranked tied for 73rd amongst NHL forwards. Nonetheless, two of Paul’s three most typical linemates assisted on a mixed three targets that he scored (20%).
These two linemates have been Mitchell Chaffee and Gage Goncalves. Paul spent roughly 30% and 25%, respectively, of his five-on-five ice time with them final season. So, you’d anticipate them to have contributed extra to his 15 targets. In the meantime, when paired with top-end gamers, Paul discovered the again of the online at a greater charge. The Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli duo assisted on six of his 15 targets, whereas Jake Guentzel assisted on two regardless of taking part in simply 167 minutes collectively at five-on-five.
In fact, higher gamers will elevate these round them, and Paul is more likely to produce extra taking part in with the Lightning’s finest forwards. Nonetheless, what if he isn’t paired with that high expertise in a playoff sequence towards the defending Stanley Cup Champions?
Paul’s Playoff Efficiency Versus Contending Third-Line Facilities
Within the 2025 Spherical 1 sequence towards the Panthers, Paul wasn’t paired with Hagel and Cirelli and spent solely 12 minutes on the ice with Guentzel. His most typical linemates have been rookies Goncalves and Conor Geekie. When paired with Goncalves, Paul had an on-ice purpose differential of minus-3. Moreover, the trio of Paul, Goncalves, and Geekie had a -0.56 anticipated purpose differential (xG +/-), the worst of any Lightning ahead mixture with not less than 10 minutes collectively within the sequence.
From the 2019 to the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the 4 most profitable groups (most playoff wins) have all had third-line facilities who managed over 53.44% of the on-ice anticipated purpose share at five-on-five (xGF%), and three of 4 that managed not less than 55.81% of the on-ice purpose share at five-on-five (GF%).
Shifting to the 2022 to the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, 75% of the 4 most profitable groups (most playoff wins) have third-line facilities that outscore their opponent in on-ice targets, and 50% outpace their opponent’s on-ice anticipated purpose share. The gamers used within the 2019-22 pattern embody Gourde, J.T. Compher, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Nicolas Roy, whereas the gamers from the 2022-25 pattern embody Lundell, Adam Henrique, Matt Duchene, and Roy (once more).
In the meantime, in 16 playoff video games from 2022-25, Paul hasn’t met both threshold. He’s managed simply 41.18% of the purpose share and 47.79% of the anticipated purpose share. Contemplating his linemates, is Paul one of the best third-line heart choice for the Lightning on his personal, or does he want a greater supporting forged?
Lightning Should Financial institution on Rising Cap and Youth Growth
As Eric Tulsky, normal supervisor of the Carolina Hurricanes, as soon as stated, you possibly can by no means show a idea, solely disprove all of the competing ones. Is Paul a professional third-line heart on a contending crew? Or, as a substitute, we are able to reframe the query as: Can we disprove that Paul is on the extent of a third-line heart usually discovered on a Stanley Cup contender? The reply isn’t clear, with arguments to help either side.
On the one hand, Paul’s regular-season five-on-five level manufacturing, on-ice purpose share, and ice shot high quality share are under the common threshold of the usual third-line heart on a contender. Plus, his five-on-five playoff level manufacturing, on-ice purpose share, and ice shot high quality share are on the underside finish among the many eight facilities I’m evaluating him towards.
In the meantime, Paul hasn’t been equipped with the standard of linemates a few of these different gamers have in our pattern. Gourde had linemates like Coleman and Goodrow in 2021, whereas Lundell performs with Marchand and Luostarinen.
Paul doesn’t exceed and even match the efficiency of a “legit” third-line heart, however he hasn’t had the identical caliber of linemates in that position. The Lightning should depend on the event of their youthful gamers and probably some roster acquisitions to construct the best line for Paul, who enters 12 months 4 of his seven-year deal subsequent season.
On no account is Paul a horrible participant, as he’s had some clutch moments with the Lightning. However he wants the correct linemates as a result of we’ve disproven the concept that he can carry his line. Don’t anticipate Paul to ship the Lightning a Stanley Cup driving the third line. Nonetheless, with the correct mix of gamers, he is usually a contributor to the equation for a contending crew.
All statistics from Evolving Hockey and Pure Stat Trick
