Rutgers freshman guard Dylan Harper placed on his Superman cape and will nicely have saved the Scarlet Knights’ dwindling NCAA Event hopes with 28 factors and 5 assists in Wednesday’s 82-73 upset of No. 23 Illinois. The win gave Rutgers its fourth Quad 1 victory — all coming in its final seven outings — and breathed life right into a season that when appeared headed for a spiral.
After beginning the yr ranked No. 25, the Scarlet Knights stumbled to an 8-8 begin that almost buried their Massive Dance hopes nicely earlier than the season’s midway level. However they’re 4-3 of their final seven, with all 4 wins in Quad 1. Most significantly, they’re wholesome as they gear up for the stretch run.
Harper missed the final two video games with a nagging ankle harm, and he has additionally been out and in of the lineup due to sickness. With him on the ground, although, Rutgers’ ceiling is raised considerably. Of these 4 Quad 1 wins, Harper has performed in three, averaging 22.3 factors and 4.3 assists per sport in opposition to Illinois, Nebraska and UCLA. The lone Quad 1 win with out Harper this season, a street victory in opposition to Northwestern final week, got here courtesy of a 37-point explosion from fellow freshman Ace Bailey.
BartTorvik.com provides Rutgers only a 1.5% probability of creating the tourney, nonetheless — so the win hardly moved the needle — however the injection of momentum may wind up serving as an inflection level for a workforce that has seemingly discovered its footing in latest weeks.
Here is a take a look at the place its resumé stands with eight common season video games remaining and what it may do to play its method into the NCAA Event combine.
Present resumé
- Quad 1 report: 4-9 | Quad 1 wins: vs. Illinois, @ Northwestern, @ Nebraska, vs. UCLA
- Quad 2 report: 2-0 | Quad 2 wins: vs. Notre Dame, vs. Penn State
- Quad 3 report: 0-2 | Quad 3 losses: @ Kennesaw State, vs. Princeton
- Quad 4 report: 6-0 | Quad 4 wins: Wagner, Saint Peter’s,Monmouth, Merrimack, Seton Corridor, Columbia
Early losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton — even when they had been by a mixed three factors — are the evident holes on the Rutgers resumé proper now. There isn’t any erasing that, however Rutgers’ Massive Ten stretch run supplies loads of probabilities to dig out of that gap.
Upcoming alternatives
As a fast refresher, the NCAA match choice committee makes use of the NET rankings — an analysis device that changed the RPI and kinds the standard of wins and losses by workforce’s in keeping with the quadrant system. The quadrant system is as follows:
- Quadrant 1: Residence 1-30, Impartial 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Residence 31-75, Impartial 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Residence 76-160, Impartial 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Residence 161-353, Impartial 201-353, Away 241-353
The NET rankings replace each day, and a Quad 1 win can grow to be a Quad 2 win — or vice versa — relying upon how every opponent finishes the season. It would not matter the place opponent was ranked every time a respective sport is performed.
With that in thoughts, Rutgers’ eight remaining common season video games — highlighted by street tilts vs. No. 18 Maryland, No. 24 Maryland and No. 7 Purdue — gives 4 Quad 1 alternatives (at Maryland, at Oregon, at Michigan and at Purdue), three Quad 2 alternatives (Iowa, at Washington and USC) and one Quad 3 alternative (Minnesota).
- Sunday, Feb. 9: @ Maryland (Quad 1)
- Wednesday, Feb. 12: vs. Iowa (Quad 2)
- Sunday, Feb. 16: @ Oregon (Quad 1)
- Wednesday, Feb. 19: @ Washington (Quad 2)
- Sunday, Feb. 23: vs. USC (Quad 2)
- Thursday, Feb. 27: @ Michigan (Quad 1)
- Tuesday, March 4: @ Purdue (Quad 1)
- Sunday, March 9: vs. Minnesota (Quad 3)
Practical path to bubble city?
Rutgers will possible be an underdog in all of its Quad 1 video games, and a double-digit canine double-digit in no less than three of these contests — together with Sunday’s street check in opposition to No. 18 Maryland. Probably the most viable path to sneaking within the again door of the NCAA Event possible entails of successful no less than two of these 4, or some mixture of 1 win and a deep run within the Massive Ten tourney.
That would not assure something, as a result of the match bubble is completely different annually and resumes range. Take final yr for example: Virginia was 2-7 in Quad 1 alternatives, 8-2 in Quad 2 and 13-0 in Quads 3 and 4 — and snuck in over a St. John’s workforce that was 4-10 in Quad 1, 6-2 in Quad 2 however a mixed 10-1 in Quads 3 and 4 with an unsightly Quad 3 loss.
There isn’t any magic quantity, however six Quad 1 wins appears the minimal requisite quantity to assist offset the Quad 3 losses bogging Rutgers down. That’d look one thing like beating Iowa, Washington, USC and Minnesota after which selecting off two of Maryland, Oregon, Michigan or Purdue on the street. Two wins in that final class and no losses within the video games it’s going to possible be favored in would on the very least get it into the bubble dialog.
Rutgers will not be there but — not even shut. However it’s trending upward in a rush and has alternatives in opposition to Massive Ten foes to meet its preseason promise as a one-and-done-led darkhorse that no workforce needs to face in March.