Was Magnussen’s Canadian GP evaluation right after early heroics?

From 14th on the grid, Magnussen discovered the acute moist tyre significantly potent within the first six laps when the circuit was at its most slippery, and carved his approach as much as fourth by the top of lap three.

That put him in touching distance of the highest three however, because the circuit started to dry out, the crossover level between intermediates and wets started to shut in.

In measuring Magnussen’s early excursions versus these of Oscar Piastri, whom the Dane had handed for fourth, that crossover level arrived on lap six: Magnussen set a 1m34.673s, Piastri a 1m33.060s, which prompted Haas to deliver Magnussen in on the next lap for intermediates.

Watch: Canadian GP Race Assessment – Moist and Wild Vs Cool and Calm

So, one may suppose that it was the correct name for Magnussen to return in – he’d now began lapping slower than the vehicles forward. A gradual pitstop fairly harm his possibilities and price him observe place, however he shook out in thirteenth nonetheless to at the least make a place.

“It was trying good,” he defined post-race. “We took the correct selection on the total wets – however then I feel we pitted off onto the inter too early as a result of we ended up having to take one other inter. We may have stretched that full moist, to then go on to the inter and keep on it as an alternative.

“On high of that, we had a really gradual pit cease. It felt like we had some alternative there – however did not get something out of it.

“We did not attempt to take any loopy gamble or something. We simply did what we felt was proper for the circumstances. And it regarded okay, so I feel we did the correct factor there to start with however – then did not again it up with the correct selections thereafter.”

Haas tried to go longer with Nico Hulkenberg’s stint, and the German held on till lap 12 having made his personal ascent up the sector to seventh. After the sixth-lap cross-over, Hulkenberg was lapping between 1-1.5 seconds slower than Daniel Ricciardo behind, earlier than the Australian finally took again management of eighth on lap 11.

Alex Albon, Williams FW46, Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24, Logan Sargeant, Williams FW46

Alex Albon, Williams FW46, Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24, Logan Sargeant, Williams FW46

Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photographs

However Hulkenberg was battling a automobile he famous was “not absolutely wholesome”, so it stands to cause that Magnussen may need been in a position to have gained a couple of tenths over his team-mate’s vary of occasions within the 1m34s. It appeared like Haas had timed its Magnussen cease to restrict the injury of the time taken to pit whereas the sector unfold was enough, however the gradual cease value about 5 to 6 seconds and the timing meant that Magnussen wanted to cease once more below the security automobile.

It was anticipated that rain was due earlier than the race’s mid-point, though answering Magnussen’s suggestion will probably be made with the advantage of hindsight. Maybe hanging it out till lap 15 would have negated the necessity for an additional cease below the security automobile for brand new inters, that call-in finally shuffling Magnussen down again to 14th.

Let’s check out how the moist tyre technique may have performed out, with out that seventh-lap cease, and we’ll do the identical for Hulkenberg and his lap 12 pitstop – though his lap occasions would require much less in the way in which of extrapolation.

On the finish of lap six, Magnussen was 4.76s away from Piastri. Assuming he may proceed on the identical tempo, Piastri would have wanted two or three extra laps to mount a cross on pure tempo, though the necessity to again off onto the moist components of the circuit may need hindered that barely.

Regardless, Magnussen was probably not racing the McLaren driver; that is purely an experiment to find out if Haas may have managed factors. Thus, evaluating the laps of Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Charles Leclerc, and Yuki Tsunoda is maybe extra worthwhile as some extent of reference.

Here is what we’ll do: ‘tare’ Magnussen on the finish of the second lap, and work out the relative gaps of these vehicles who battled for factors on the decrease finish of the highest 10. Subsequent, his recorded lap time from lap seven will probably be deleted and the delta over his earlier lap extrapolated to the top of the lap. He was roughly 0.36s up earlier than the braking zone for Turns 13/14, so we’ll take that off his sixth-lap 1m34.673s.

For ease, we’ll transpose in Hulkenberg’s lap occasions from lap eight to lap 11; though he was over a second slower per lap than Magnussen, this was as a consequence of him spending longer in visitors. By the point Hulkenberg had received as much as seventh he was extra constantly within the 1m34s after the battling Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton pulled clear, which is rather more consultant of the moist tyre tempo, though his calculated twelfth lap is far slower given his bizarre strategy to the hairpin – he.

We’ll apply that to his personal occasions however, for Magnussen, we’ll as an alternative extra steadily degrade his occasions consistent with the drying observe efficiency. It is onerous to know what the efficiency deltas per lap will probably be, as Pirelli doesn’t so readily provide that data, however estimating is half the enjoyable.

Here is the place we’re after we construct up the lap time image with conservative estimates for laps 12-15. (All figures in seconds)

Lap Magnussen Ricciardo Stroll Leclerc Tsunoda Hulkenberg
2 (delta) 0 4.291 5.428 7.908 9.01 6.155
3 96.134 100.559 100.688 99.247 99.935 96.651
4 93.993 97.504 97.302 97.813 97.475 95.053
5 94.529 97.388 97.044 96.358 95.882 96.104
6 94.673 96.684 96.655 96.3 96.646 96.178
7 94.313 93.997 93.695 94.541 94.176 96.158
8 94.17 93.341 93.549 93.768 93.491 94.17
9 94.267 92.518 92.85 92.791 92.88 94.267
10 94.671 93.382 92.786 92.094 92.028 94.671
11 94.672 93.504 94.245 94.16 94 94.672
12 94.872 90.514 91.2 93.158 93.494 96.172
13 95.072 90.251 90.255 90.52 90.362 95.072
14 95.272 88.964 89.446 89.171 89.622 95.272
15 95.472 88.743 89.017 88.868 89.266 95.472
SUM 1232.11 1221.64 1224.16 1226.697 1228.267 1246.067
GAP 0 -10.47 -7.95 -5.413 -3.843 13.957
GAP to P1 54.594 44.124 46.644 49.181 50.751 68.551
STOP 79.594 44.124 46.644 49.181 50.751 93.551

Based mostly on the lap deltas, Magnussen seems to fall 10 seconds behind Ricciardo which places him thirteenth earlier than his cease – precisely the place he ended up after his pitstop. Hulkenberg is an additional 14 seconds behind his personal team-mate, though this features him one place and places him 18th – marginally forward of Zhou Guanyu. That is all pre-pitstop nevertheless and, assuming a 25-second cease, each Haas drivers would find yourself a way adrift on the again – Magnussen is 79.594s off the lead, with Hulkenberg 93.551s away.

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24, Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL38

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24, Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL38

Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photographs

Recent intermediates for 10 laps would reward them with some lap time, though their real-world tempo on recent inters was not a lot faster general than that of Logan Sargeant’s. And, if the plan is to avoid wasting tyres to make sure they’re in respectable nick for the second downpour, it is onerous to see it altering. So, assuming tempo is stagnant, the gaps will stay the identical.

Nonetheless, that is the important thing bit: how a lot do they get again from not stopping below the lap 25 security automobile?

Three drivers stayed out on the identical set of inters through the security automobile: Tsunoda, Valtteri Bottas, and Esteban Ocon. Collating a mean of their lap 25 occasions, we get a ‘keep out’ lap of a 1m52.613s, over 10s faster versus the pit-in time that the Haas drivers really managed (2m09.198 for Magnussen, 2m03.974 for Hulkenberg).

However that 10 seconds is not sufficient to deliver the Haas duo again into play – an end-of-lap 15 cease seems to be too late. The 2 principally lose a pitstop by staying on the wets for longer because the intermediates are a number of seconds per lap faster, and they’d want to achieve that again plus change for staying out.

What about stopping on lap 12 and staying out below the security automobile?

Lap Magnussen Ricciardo Stroll Leclerc Tsunoda Hulkenberg
2 (delta) 0 4.291 5.428 7.908 9.01 6.155
3 96.134 100.559 100.688 99.247 99.935 96.651
4 93.993 97.504 97.302 97.813 97.475 95.053
5 94.529 97.388 97.044 96.358 95.882 96.104
6 94.673 96.684 96.655 96.3 96.646 96.178
7 94.313 93.997 93.695 94.541 94.176 96.158
8 94.17 93.341 93.549 93.768 93.491 94.17
9 94.267 92.518 92.85 92.791 92.88 94.267
10 94.671 93.382 92.786 92.094 92.028 94.671
11 94.672 93.504 94.245 94.16 94 94.672
12 94.872 90.514 91.2 93.158 93.494 96.172
SUM 946.294 953.682 955.442 958.138 959.017 960.251
GAP 0 7.388 9.148 11.844 12.723 13.957
GAP TO P1 34.843 42.231 43.991 46.687 47.566 48.8
+L12 STOP 59.843 42.231 43.991 46.687 47.566 73.8

After his precise cease, Hulkenberg emerged onto the observe in nineteenth place. The lap earlier than the security automobile, he was 9 seconds behind Bottas who didn’t cease. Assuming the identical hole, albeit one which was compressing as the security automobile began to again up the sector, Hulkenberg may at finest have hoped to sit down sixteenth because the stops shook out, nonetheless behind Bottas who in the end didn’t register any factors.

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24 battles with Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-24

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24 battles with Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-24

Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photographs

It may need labored out for Magnussen, nevertheless; an end-of-lap-12 cease would have put him someplace between the Saubers, though recent intermediates may need received him forward of Bottas and knocking on the door of Gasly. That places him in Ocon territory when the stops come, providing a shot at ninth or tenth when the race shakes out into its ultimate order.

Maybe, then, Magnussen has some extent – actually and figuratively. Had his stint on the acute moist been prolonged by 5 laps and never hindered by gradual pitstops, he’d have seemingly offered a way more compelling prospect so as to add to Haas’ factors tally for the season.

However, to cite Italian celeb chef and TV persona Gino D’Acampo: if his grandmother had wheels, she’d be a motorbike. Extrapolating from incomplete knowledge, particularly in a moist race, is usually folly – however Haas may need been higher served to maintain Magnussen on the wets for a couple of extra laps…

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