No participant in tennis historical past has ever dominated a Grand Slam match and a floor like Rafael Nadal. Now that domination will finish.
The King of Clay had received 14 titles at Roland Garros, an unbreakable document, till his finely tuned, muscular physique lastly broke down. Accidents have plagued Nadal since he turned professional in 2003, however a devastating higher hip harm incurred on the Australian Open in January saved the almost 37-year-old Spaniard out of essential preliminary occasions at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome. A observe session in early Could that left him grimacing and masking his face solid doubt on his skill to defend the title he captured in Paris a yr in the past regardless of a painful foot harm.
Then, at an emotional press convention on Could 18, Nadal introduced his French Open withdrawal, saying he plans to retire in 2024 however hopes to achieve the Davis Cup last on the finish of this yr. “I don’t just like the phrase, however I really feel robust sufficient to say it: I don’t assume I deserve to finish like this,” Nadal mentioned in Spanish after withdrawing. “I’ve labored exhausting sufficient all through my profession for my finish to not be in a press convention.”
Admirers of the tennis big at Roland Garros will simply should gaze longingly on the six-metre-high metallic statue immortalising Nadal on the grounds close to Courtroom Philippe Chatrier.
We knew the Spanish legend couldn’t final eternally, simply as accidents pressured 40-year-old Roger Federer to hold up his racquets final yr. However it’s nonetheless unhappy to witness one other member of the long-lasting Massive Three lose his battle towards the ravages of time.
On this intriguing post-Nadal clay period, let’s have a look at the contenders and the anticipated champion:
The Males
Stefanos Tsitsipas: “The way in which tennis is performed as we speak on clay, you need to end the purpose on the web as a result of as we speak’s gamers seldom err on groundstrokes and are so good defensively,” noticed former No. 1 Jim Courier. In idea, Tsitsipas, one of many elite volleyers, ought to take larger benefit of this asset.
Towards the elite, his profession data are poor — 2-11 vs. Djokovic, 0-4 vs. Carlos Alcaraz, and 0-2 vs. Holger Rune. If the favourites falter, nonetheless, the good-looking, broad-shouldered Greek has an outdoor likelihood to achieve the French last once more, the place he misplaced in 2021 to Novak Djokovic after profitable the opening two units.
Jannik Sinner: The 21-year-old Italian superior to the semis or higher in seven tournaments this season to achieve a career-high No. 8. He made technical enhancements on his serve through the use of a brand new takeback and tossing extra precisely. In consequence, he boosted his common first serve pace to 124 mph at Indian Wells, in comparison with 117 mph the yr earlier than.
Darren Cahill, who joined the teaching crew a yr in the past, has inspired Sinner to diversify his one-dimensional energy sport by mixing in drop pictures and altering tempo. To crack the top-5, he wants to enhance his volley. Though Jannik has notched up three wins over Alcaraz, he’s but to achieve a Grand Slam semifinal. If Sinner performs sensible tennis and strikes effectively on the clay, he may make the penultimate spherical at Roland Garros.
Casper Ruud: After a profession yr highlighted by making the ultimate on the French Open, US Open, Miami, and the ATP Finals, Ruud got here again to earth this season with a mediocre 11-9 match document going into Rome. A giant forehand and a much-improved serve elevated him to a career-high No. 2 earlier than he dropped to No. 4.
Regardless of the stoop, Casper ought to achieve confidence from this stat: he stands at No. 3 on the ATP Tour among the many “Below Stress Leaders” on clay through the previous 12 months. The best participant in Norwegian historical past might want to keep that clutch play to achieve one other Grand Slam last.
Daniil Medvedev: After a disappointing straight-sets third-round loss to Sebastian Korda on the Australian Open, No. 3-ranked Medvedev rebounded strongly by profitable Rotterdam, Doha, and Miami on exhausting courts. However Tennis Channel analyst Paul Annacone suggested warning. “Clay is a piece in progress for Medvedev.” Rune outclassed him 6-3, 6-4 at Monte Carlo, and No. 121 Aslan Karatsev edged him 7-6 (1), 6-4 at Madrid.
In the end, the 27-year-old, lanky 6’6” Russian is embracing clay, a floor he’s by no means mastered, as his profession 7-6 document at Roland Garros signifies. He’s hampered by minimal sliding expertise, poor courtroom positioning, pricey double faults, and a mediocre web sport.
Carlos Alcaraz: The 20-year-old Spaniard moulded his sport after that of the legendary Federer, famend for his shot-making wizardry and incomparable athleticism. How effectively that fashion works on clay in best-of-three-of-five-set matches is likely one of the most intriguing questions at this Roland Garros. Alcaraz noticed his 12-match profitable streak—normal by his clay titles at Barcelona and Madrid—finish on the Internazionali BNL d’Italia when One hundred and thirty fifth-ranked Fabian Marozsan shocked him 6-3, 7-6 (4).
Regardless of his upbringing on Spanish clay and the stylistic affect of his compatriot Nadal, Carlos, the early betting favorite, doesn’t have the shot tolerance for lengthy, grinding factors wanted to win the French Open this yr.
Additionally, his backhand often falters, and he resorts to low-percentage pictures. On the plus aspect, Alcaraz boasts terrific athleticism and pace, an enormous forehand, a potent first serve, and a depraved kick second serve.
Novak Djokovic: The Australian Open champion took three weeks off earlier than the Rome Masters due to the lingering results of surgical procedure to restore his proper elbow. The 36-year-old Serb hasn’t regained the clay-court type that produced two French Open and 6 Italian Open titles. Quick-rising 20-year-old Holger Rune overpowered and out-steadied him 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 within the Rome quarterfinals.
The setback meant that for the primary time since 2004, neither Nadal nor Djokovic reached the ultimate of the world’s second-most prestigious clay match.
As well as, it may presage the start of the tip of The Djoker’s reign on the high, evoking recollections of Federer’s gorgeous upset over famous person Pete Sampras on the 2001 Wimbledon, a harbinger of his future greatness.
Djokovic will advance deep into the second week, however one of many New Technology will take him down.
Holger Rune: “He form of jogs my memory [of me] a bit of bit, the best way he performs,” Djokovic mentioned earlier than Rune whipped him on the Rome Masters. “Actually match bodily, nice defence, but in addition an amazing counter-puncher. He can damage you from each the forehand and backhand sides. Actually strong serve. Aggressive returns. Simply an all-around participant on all surfaces.”
Tennis Channel analyst Prakash Amritraj gave a succinct analysis of Holger’s decisive victory. “That is scary. However Novak was on the defensive your entire match.” Rune drew the best conclusion about his spectacular efficiency. “If it’s working towards Novak, it really works towards nearly anyone.” The tennis world first realized that on the Paris Masters final October, when the Danish Daredevil knocked off 5 top-10 foes, together with Djokovic within the last.
This yr, the ruggedly constructed, blond Dane has eschewed the antics that used to harass opponents, changing into a cheerful warrior that followers like. Cheers have changed jeers, and the sensation is mutual. “I discover it extra enjoyable to play in a loopy ambiance,” mentioned Rune through the Rome Masters, recognized for its impassioned spectators.
Though Alcaraz, the 2022 US Open champion and winner of Masters titles at Monte Carlo and Madrid this spring, has overshadowed Rune, the Dane could have his day within the solar at Roland Garros. There, Holger, who describes himself as “an enormous fighter,” will seize his first Grand Slam title and be a part of Carlos to type what seems to be like the brand new Massive Two.
Darkish Horses: Lorenzo Musetti, Francisco Cerundolo, Jiri Lehecka, Zhang Zhizhen, and Arthur Fils.
The Girls
“If you will problem Swiatek, you need to overpower her,” mentioned former No. 1 Jim Courier. That problem would appear daunting on clay, the slowest of the game’s three most important surfaces. Nonetheless, very similar to the boys nowadays, the ladies are belting out their groundstrokes, favouring energy over consistency. They’re additionally blasting first serves often within the 110–120 mph vary.
One other issue may jeopardise Swiatek’s probabilities to defend her title. “The courts at Roland Garros are fast,” mentioned Monica Puig, the 2016 Olympic gold medalist. “They’re like exhausting courts with some mud on them.”
When Swiatek received 37 straight matches and the French and US Opens in 2022, she seemed nearly unbeatable. This season, she’s seemed weak, notably towards energy hitters. “I undoubtedly assume different ladies are dissecting extra methods to beat her and enjoying higher,” No. 3-ranked Jessica Pegula mentioned at Media Day in Rome. “You possibly can’t actually count on her to play lights out eternally; no person can do this, not even the perfect gamers on this planet. I feel we’ve all simply pushed one another.”
Let’s discover out who, if anybody, will dethrone the Queen of Clay.
Jelena Ostapenko: Cicero’s well-known maxim — “Fortune favours the courageous” — applies completely to Ostapenko. This go-for-broke slugger blasted a fusillade of winners to win the 2017 French Open as a 100-1 longshot. When Jelena is nice, she’s extraordinarily good. And when she’s unhealthy, effectively, you recognize what occurs. Earlier than upsetting Simona Halep within the last, she whacked an astounding 245 winners but in addition dedicated an ungodly 217 unforced errors in six matches.
On the current Rome Masters, the resurgent, 25-year-old Latvian blasted previous 2021 French Open titlist Barbora Krejcikova, No. 8 Daria Kasatkina, and former No. 2 Paula Badosa earlier than Elena Rybakina stopped her. Whereas the cumbersome, 5’10” Ostapenko is the slowest mover among the many contenders, she counteracts that weak spot by staying totally on offence.
Win or lose — and he or she received’t reprise her 2017 tour de power — Jelena is at all times entertaining with daring pictures and facial expressions starting from anguish to please.
Paula Badosa: “She hits the ball unbelievable, however mentally, that’s the factor that has damage her most,” mentioned Puig. The burden of nice expectations after an excellent junior profession overwhelmed her when she joined the professionals and once more final yr when she rose to a career-high No. 2 solely to nosedive to No. 38.
Fortunately, Badosa rebounded with decisive victories over Kasatkina at Stuttgart, No. 6 Coco Gauff at Madrid, and No. 5 Ons Jabeur at Rome. Don’t be stunned if the 5’11” Spaniard whips extra top-tenners in Paris.
Veronika Kudermetova: “She’s like a wall. She’s so constant and provides you no free factors,” mentioned Puig in regards to the classic-stroking Russian. Previously 12 months, Kudermetova scored spectacular wins over No. 4 Badosa en path to the 2022 French Open quarterfinals, Sabalenka in Berlin on grass, Jabeur in San Jose on exhausting courts, and Gauff in Doha on exhausting courts. Bolstering her clay credentials this spring, Veronika eradicated No. 3 Pegula and No. 8 Kasatkina to achieve the Madrid semifinals and Qinwen Zhang, Maria Bouzkova, and Anastasia Potapova to achieve the Rome semifinals.
Versatile Veronika, ranked No. 12, received’t win her first main in Paris. However she will be able to beat nearly anybody on any floor on a given day, so keep watch over this gifted Russian.
Jessica Pegula: Listed No. 10 within the early betting odds, Pegula ranks No. 3 on the WTA Tour. Notably, Jessica additionally ranks No. 3 in doubles, enjoying with fellow American Gauff. Her backhand, particularly down the road, is likely one of the greatest, however the 5’7” daughter of the billionaire proprietor of the Buffalo Payments doesn’t have an enormous weapon in her arsenal, and her flat groundstrokes aren’t ideally suited for clay.
The late-blooming 29-year-old hasn’t crushed a top-15 participant on clay this yr.
A tough-court specialist, Pegula upset Swiatek in January’s United Cup after going 0-4 towards her final yr.
Jessica described herself as “decided,” however that requisite trait isn’t sufficient on clay towards Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina.
Coco Gauff: Vegasinsider.com’s third favorite standing to win her first main title enormously overrates Gauff’s probabilities. She has seldom reproduced the shape that carried her to the Roland Garros last a yr in the past. The 19-year-old American, as soon as thought of a sure-fire future champion, seemed confused and nearly resigned when Badosa thrashed her 6-3, 6-0 within the Madrid third spherical.
What’s gone improper with Gauff? Rick Macci, who coached Serena and Venus Williams throughout their childhood and can now information Gauff, says her “shaky forehand” is the issue.
On April 30, Macci tweeted he’d enhance Gauff’s forehand, and it “will turn out to be her greatest shot sometime. Wants time without work with the precise biomechanical plan to reprogram the reflexes of 12 years and confuse the muscle reminiscence.”
We’ll have to attend till subsequent yr for Gauff.
Iga Swiatek: The world No. 1 has captured two of her three main titles at Roland Garros, in 2020 and 2022. Swiatek’s forehand averages 77 mph, the identical as the typical on the ATP Tour, and her 2,479 rpms, common solely barely much less. Her massive forehand, slender 5’9” physique, and blazing pace are harking back to Steffi Graf, who received seven of her 22 Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros.
Swiatek received the 2021 and 2022 Rome titles, and earlier than her 2023 quarterfinal loss towards Rybakina, she was a terrific 11-1 on the season and 56-8 lifetime on clay. A proper thigh harm incurred within the second-set tiebreaker finally pressured the 21-year-old Pole to retire at 2-6, 7-6 (3), 2-2. That gave the Kazakh three straight victories over Swiatek this season, the others coming on the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Swiatek stays the consensus favorite to take Roland Garros, however now the betting odds have turn out to be a bit of extra even.
Aryna Sabalenka: The second of Sabalenka’s profession breakthroughs this yr could in the end show as crucial as the primary. The Belarusian outhit Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 within the Australian Open last for her first Grand Slam singles title.
Three months later, Sabalenka grew to become the primary girl to beat Swiatek in a clay courtroom last since 2019, when she prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 within the Madrid Open. “I’m tremendous comfortable. Particularly towards Iga on clay, it’s one thing particular,” Aryna mentioned. “What she did final season and what she retains doing, it actually motivates me quite a bit to enhance, to maintain working exhausting, to maintain preventing. I do know that it’s at all times a battle towards her. I used to be considering of it after I was down within the final sport ‘OK. I did it at AO, so I’ll in all probability be capable of get this win once more.’”
That confidence will gasoline her relentless energy sport and will take her to the French Open last.
Elena Rybakina: “She jogs my memory of Lindsay Davenport as a result of she assaults with the serve and return of serve, so her opponents are at all times underneath stress,” mentioned ESPN analyst Mary Joe Fernandez throughout Rybakina’s thrilling run to the 2023 Australian Open last. The 2022 Wimbledon champion additionally has former No. 1 Davenport’s picture-perfect backhand, however she strikes higher and boasts larger serving energy, with first serves often within the 115–120 mph vary. “I really like her service movement,” mentioned former No. 1 Andy Roddick, a rocket server. “It’s rhythmic. She will be able to hit all 4 [service box] corners. And that works on each floor.”
The 23-year-old Kazakh’s aggressive forehand would profit from extra topspin and fewer predictability. “If she will be able to develop a forehand down the road, she’ll be nearly unbeatable,” mentioned former doubles star Rennae Stubbs.
“Regardless of being very tall (6’0”), Rybakina strikes extremely effectively,” identified Puig. The final section in her growth is to capitalise on her highly effective serves and groundstrokes by coming to the web extra. Most significantly, nonetheless, Rybakina boasts a confidence-soaring 3-0 document towards Swiatek in 2023. Swiatek fell to Rybakina 6-4, 6-4, within the spherical of 16 on the Australian Open and 6-2, 6-2, within the semifinals at Indian Wells. In one other crucial rivalry, the slender, broad-shouldered Kazakh defeated Sabalenka 7-6 (11), 6-4 within the Indian Wells last, her first victory after 4 straight losses.
Overlook Elena’s misleading No. 6 rating. Had she obtained the two,000 factors that Wimbledon took away from her final yr, she’d stand No. 3 behind Swiatek and Sabalenka.
Throughout this fortnight, the reserved Kazakh will overpower one or each of her hardest rivals to grab her second Grand Slam title.
Darkish Horses: Qinwen Zheng, Mirra Andreeva, Karolina Muchova, Donna Vekic, and Camila Osorio.